Spatially Explicit climate change vulnerability assessment of ecological systems along altitudinal gradients in the Indian Himalayan region

Spatial ecological vulnerability assessments are important for devising management plans for ecological systems to maintain the flow of ecosystem services, especially in the mountains. Himalayan mountains, being a fragile ecosystem, have considerable ecological value, however, information on ecological vulnerability is lacking. The present evaluation attempts to prioritize ecosensitive zones by assessing the altitudinal ecological vulnerability of Garhwal Himalaya, India by devising a framework using a mix of bio-physical parameters. Eight bio-physical parameters, viz., Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), slope, aspect, landscape fragmentation, temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) were identified and considered to assess vulnerability. Spatial Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) results in five Principal Components (PCs), which were integrated and weighted for the calculation of the Ecological Vulnerability Index (EVI). The analysis results differential vulnerability across the altitudes with above 2000m altitude showed severe vulnerability and classified as potential vulnerability (36.25 %), slight vulnerability (35.25 %), medium vulnerability (20.25 %), high vulnerability (8.25 %) and severe vulnerability (0.25 %). The vulnerable regions were prioritized based on their ecological vulnerability as per the classes viz., region of strict protection (24.70 %), region of focal protection (60.41%) and region of composite development (14.89 %). The study suggetsed priority conservation and management actions for addressing the vulnerable areas for sustainable development of the region. The study provides valuable insights of vulnerability and associated protection measures leading to devising the most suitable management strategies for the sustainability of the ecological systems.