Bigger is better: age class-specific survival rates in long-lived turtles increase with size

Vital rates for small, non-breeding individuals are important components of population dynamics for many species, but often individuals of these sizes are difficult to locate, capture, and track. As such, biologists frequently lack reliable estimates of juvenile survival because sample sizes and recapture rates for this life stage are low. Long-lived animals often take many years to reach sexual maturity and spend much of this time in the smaller size classes, making them sensitive to changes in survival rates. We estimated the survival rates of all size classes for the northern map turtle (Graptemys geographica) using a mark-recapture dataset with >3,500 captures from 2019-2021 and 210 nests from 2018-2021. As turtle size increased, annual survival probability increased regardless of sex. Estimated annual survival probability for turtles >18 cm long (i.e., adult females >15 years) was about 0.95, over 4 times higher than turtles that were 3 cm long (i.e., hatchlings <1 year; 0.22 annual survival probability). Although we did not observe a difference in survival probability between sexes of any size class, adult females are nearly twice the size of adult males, leading to an increased annual survival probability for females of 0.95, compared to 0.80 for males. Changes in adult survival had the greatest influence on population estimates over time, with temporary decreases, such as those due to poaching or an environmental disaster, potentially leading to unrecoverable decreases in the overall population size. Our study provides detailed survival rates for all size classes in a long-lived turtle, which are necessary to assess population stability and can be used to determine the most effective conservation or management practices.