Analyzing the correlation between quinolone-resistant Escherichia coli resistance rates and climate factors: A comprehensive analysis across 31 Chinese provinces

Background: The increasing problem of bacterial resistance, particularly with quinolone-resistant Escherichia coli (QnR eco) poses a serious global health issue. Methods: We collected data on QnR eco resistance rates and detection frequencies from 2014 to 2021 via the China Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System, complemented by meteorological and socioeconomic data from the China Statistical Yearbook and the China Meteorological Data Service Centre (CMDC). Comprehensive nonparametric testing and multivariate regression models were used in the analysis. Result: Our analysis revealed significant regional differences in QnR eco resistance and detection rates across China. Along the Hu Huanyong Line, resistance rates varied markedly: 49.35 in the northwest, 54.40 on the line, and 52.30 in the southeast (P = 0.001). Detection rates also showed significant geographical variation, with notable differences between regions (P < 0.001). Climate types influenced these rates, with significant variability observed across different climates (P < 0.001). Our predictive model for resistance rates, integrating climate and healthcare factors, explained 64.1% of the variance (adjusted R-squared = 0.641). For detection rates, the model accounted for 19.2% of the variance, highlighting the impact of environmental and healthcare influences. Conclusion: The study found higher resistance rates in warmer, monsoon climates and areas with more public health facilities, but lower rates in cooler, mountainous, or continental climates with more rainfall. This highlights the strong impact of climate on antibiotic resistance. Meanwhile, the predictive model effectively forecasts these resistance rates using China's diverse climate data. This is crucial for public health strategies and helps policymakers and healthcare practitioners tailor their approaches to antibiotic resistance based on local environmental conditions. These insights emphasize the importance of considering regional climates in managing antibiotic resistance.