A "Prediction - Detection - Judgment" framework for sudden water contamination event detection with online monitoring

The contamination detection technology helps in water quality management and protection in surface water. It is important to detect sudden contamination events timely from dynamic variations due to various interference factors in online water quality monitoring data. In this study, a framework named “Prediction - Detection - Judgment” is proposed with a method framework of “Time series increment - Hierarchical clustering - Bayes' theorem model”. Time to detection is used as an evaluation index of contamination detection methods, along with the probability of detection and false alarm rate. The proposed method is tested with available public data and further applied in a monitoring site of a river. Results showed that the method could detect the contamination events with a 100% probability of detection, a 17% false alarm rate and a time to detection close to 4 monitoring intervals. The proposed index time to detection evaluates the timeliness of the method, and timely detection ensures that contamination events can be responded to and dealt with in time. The site application also demonstrates the feasibility and practicability of the framework proposed in this study and its potential for extensive implementation.