Wildfire risk assessment and mapping – an approach for Natura 2000 forest sites

Over the last ten years, Bulgaria's forest areas have been under almost year-round fire activity, severely impacting the Natura 2000 sites: Managing forests and maintaining traditional links between people and nature in mountain sites is becoming increasingly challenging. However, the National Methodology for determining the risk of forest fires (proposed in 2016) is applicable only at the regional administrative level (NUTS 3). This study is motivated by the actual need for an approach and a toolbox that can accurately assess the risk of wildfires, considering the unique characteristics of each location. An object-oriented vulnerability analysis is necessary to ensure that all parties involved in wildfire risk management can respond effectively. The main objective of this study is to suggest a flexible and scalable approach for spatial assessment and mapping of wildfire risk in geographic units relevant to natural heritage maintenance and resource management. A single register of potential fire risk factors is proposed, integrating 29 indicators into five thematic groups reflecting up-to-date data on hazards, vulnerability, and emergency response capacity. The factors are assessed and overlayed to come out with an integrated evaluation of the fire risk within a forestry subdivision - the smallest unit of forest management and inventory. The evaluation process involved geospatial technologies for analyzing the data and mapping the results. The methodology is tested on two Natura 2000 sites - BG0000496 “Rilski Manastir” (includes UNESCO’ World Heritage Site and symbol of Bulgarian identity – Rila Monastery) and BG0001011 “Osogovska Planina”, for which a conservation concern has been identified under the influence of wildfire risk. It has been confirmed that risk maps have the potential to support response teams, as demonstrated during a fire event that occurred on October 30th, 2022. The results from the study were used to identify suitable locations for the construction of fire towers and a visitor information system at BG0000496 “Rilski Manastir”.