Association between weight change, waist circumference change, and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in individuals with metabolically healthy overweight or obesity and metabolically unhealthy overweight or obesity

Background This study aimed to explore and compare the effect of weight change, and waist circumference (WC) change, on the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in individuals with metabolically healthy overweight or obesity (MHOW/O) and metabolically unhealthy overweight or obesity (MUOW/O) in a health check-up cohort in China. Methods 5625 adults with overweight or obesity, and free from NAFLD at baseline were included. Metabolically healthy was defined as not having any components of metabolic syndrome. Weight/WC changes were calculated as the relative difference between the first and second visits of check-up. NAFLD was assessed based on abdominal ultrasound. Results During a median follow-up of 2.1 (IQR: 1.1–4.3) years, 1849 participants developed NAFLD. In MHOW/O participants, the multivariable adjusted HRs (95 % CIs) for NAFLD in weight change ≤ −5.0 %, and − 4.9–− 1.0 % were 0.36 (0.23–0.59), 0.59 (0.43–0.80), respectively, compared to the weight stable group (−0.9% to 0.9 %). The corresponding HRs (95 % CIs) for the association between WC change (≤ 6.0 %, - 5.9 to −3.0 %) and NAFLD in MHOW/O participants were 0.41 (0.27–0.62), and 0.74 (0.54–1.01), respectively, compared to the WC stable group (−2.9–2.9 %). Similar patterns were observed in MUOW/O participants. A more marked gradient of cumulative incidence of NAFLD across weight/WC change categories was observed in MHOW/O than in MUOW/O individuals. Conclusions A more evident association between weight/WC loss and risk of NAFLD was observed in MHOW/O than in MUOW/O individuals. Our findings indicate the practical significance of encouraging all individuals with overweight and obesity to achieve a clinically relevant level of weight/WC loss to prevent NAFLD, even among metabolic healthy groups.