A Systematic Feedback Assessment Framework to Identify the Impact of Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Water Yield Patterns

Understanding the responses of water yield (WY) to climate change and vegetation greening is crucial for water resources management. However, quantifying the feedback relationships among climate, vegetation, and WY remains challenging. In this study, we developed a system feedback assessment framework based on Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff (InVEST), gravity center model, and structural equation model to reveal these relationships. The framework involves identifying land cover transfer projects, assessing spatio-temporal variations in climate, vegetation, and WY, and quantifying their system feedback relationships, which was applied in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) with significant climate change and vegetation greening. The results demonstrated that precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and WY showed significant increasing trends (p < 0.05) at rates of 2.92 mm/a, 0.004 /a and 0.71 mm/a, respectively, during 1991–2020. The areas of significant increase in precipitation, NDVI, and WY were primarily concentrated in the source and midstream of the YRB. The gravity centre of WY moved southwest from 1991 to 2000 and then northeast from 2000 to 2020 in the YRB. Precipitation changes and ecological restoration were identified as key driving factors affecting the variation of WY. Our findings highlight the possible negative effects of ecological restoration on WY variation and provide important information for developing adaptation strategies for land use management in the YRB or other regions.