Double jeopardy: global change and interspecies competition threaten Siberian cranes

Anthropogenic global change is precipitating a worldwide biodiversity crisis, with myriad species teetering on the brink of extinction. The Arctic, a fragile ecosystem already on the frontline of global change, bears witness to rapid ecological transformations catalyzed by escalating temperatures. In this context, we explore the ramifications of global change and interspecies competition on two arctic crane species: the critically endangered Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and the non -threatened sandhill crane (Grus canadensis). How might global climate and landcover changes affect the range dynamics of Siberian cranes and sandhill cranes in the Arctic, potentially leading to increased competition and posing a greater threat to the critically endangered Siberian cranes? To answer these questions, we integrated ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to predict breeding distributions, considering both abiotic and biotic factors. Our results reveal a profound divergence in how global change impacts these crane species. Siberian cranes are poised to lose a significant portion of their habitats, while sandhill cranes are projected to experience substantial range expansion. Furthermore, we identify a growing overlap in breeding areas, intensifying interspecies competition, which may imperil the Siberian crane. Notably, we found the Anzhu Islands may become a Siberian crane refuge under global change, but competition with Sandhill Cranes underscores the need for enhanced conservation management. Our study underscores the urgency of considering species responses to global changes and interspecies dynamics in risk assessments and conservation management. As anthropogenic pressures continue to mount, such considerations are crucial for the preservation of endangered species in the face of impending global challenges.