Regional power grid carbon emission change risk assessment based on dynamic carbon emission factors

Under the "dual carbon" goals, it is imperative to incorporate carbon emissions-related factors into the research of power grid risk assessment to meet the green transformation needs of the power grid. Therefore, this paper conducts a study on the risk assessment of carbon emissions changes in regional power grids based on dynamic carbon emission factors, aiming to quantitatively analyze the impact of random disturbances such as equipment failures or fluctuations in renewable energy generation on the carbon emission intensity of regional power grids. Firstly, carbon emission change risk indicators were constructed from three dimensions: the probability, frequency, and magnitude of carbon emission changes; Secondly, a dynamic carbon emission factor calculation model was proposed to reflect the spatiotemporal change of carbon emissions in the regional power grid, considering the output of different types of generators and the components of inter-area power transmission. Finally, with the premise of ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grid, a quantitative assessment model for carbon emission change risks was proposed under the objective of minimizing the electricity loss. The sampling convergence conditions of the model were also derived. The results from the MRTS79 case study demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively quantify and analyze the risk of carbon emissions changes in regional power grids, validating the effectiveness of the proposed model.