Evaluating immaturity risk in young stands of the serotinous knobcone pine (Pinus attenuata)

As wildfire becomes increasingly frequent, many serotinous plant populations risk local extirpation if fire recurs prior to sufficient seed accumulation in the canopy (i.e., "immaturity risk"). Following two 2018 wildfires in northwestern California, we studied seed viability, cone production, and postfire regeneration of a serotinous conifer, knobcone pine (Pinus attenuata), with stand ages (time since fire) ranging from 6 to 79 years. Cone density per tree was more strongly associated with tree diameter than age, and cone density was positively related to postfire seedling regeneration. Most of the postfire knobcone pine regeneration established during the first year with high survivorship in the following first postfire year. Adjusting for survivorship, the estimated minimum age for knobcone pine to promote self-replacement (one recruit per tree) was 9.5 years (or 4.6-cm dbh) and the probability of reburning at the modern fire rotation of 43 years was 19.8%. Based on our results, we found that immaturity risk was currently low for knobcone pine. Our approach provides a quantitative method to assess immaturity risk in knobcone pine and other serotinous conifer species that can be used to evaluate future risk under rapidly changing climate and fire conditions.