Prognostic implication of UBE2C + CD8 + T cell in neoadjuvant immune checkpoint blockade plus chemotherapy for locally advanced esophageal cancer

Background Immune checkpoint blockers (ICBs) plus chemotherapy as neoadjuvant therapy for patients with esophageal cancer (EC) has gained substantial attention. This study aimed to investigate the early and mid-term outcome of neoadjuvant ICBs plus chemotherapy and discover immune-associated predictors of major pathological response (MPR) for locally advanced EC. Method Patients with locally advanced EC who received neoadjuvant ICBs plus chemotherapy were retrospectively included between June 2019 to December 2021. Conjoint analysis of Bulk-RNA seq (GSE165252) and scRNA seq (GSE188900) were used to investigate potential prognostic factors and immunological mechanisms, then multiplexed immunofluorescence was applied to validate. Results 76 patients were included. A total of 21 (27.6 %) patients achieved MPR, with 13 (17.1 %) attaining a pathological complete response. Over a median follow-up of 1.8 years, 6 (7.9 %) patients died and 21 (27.6 %) experienced disease recurrence within 0.6 to 2.1 years after surgery. The overall survival rate and recurrence-free survival rate were 93.3 + 2.9 % and 84.8 + 4.2 % at 12 months, 90.8 + 3.7 % and 67.1 + 6.4 % at 24 months, and 90.8 + 3.7 % and 62.9 + 7.2 % at 36 months, respectively. Patients achieving MPR had a significantly lower risk of recurrence compared to non-responders (9.5 % vs 34.5 %, P = 0.017). Analysis of bulk-RNA seq and scRNA-seq revealed that UBE2C and UBE2C + CD8 + T cells were adverse prognostic factors. Immunohistochemistry demonstrated that the non-MPR group had a higher infiltration of UBE2C + immune cells than MPR group after neoadjuvant treatment. Multiplexed immunofluorescence confirmed that infiltrating UBE2C + CD8 + T cells in MPR group were significantly fewer than non-MPR group after neoadjuvant treatment, indicating their poor prognostic role for EC. Conclusions Neoadjuvant ICBs plus chemotherapy shows promising efficacy in locally advanced EC, with MPR being a significant predictor of lower recurrence risk. Immunological analyses identified UBE2C + CD8 + T cells as adverse prognostic factors, suggesting their potential as biomarkers for patient stratification and treatment response.