Computed tomography-based body composition parameters can predict short-term prognosis in ulcerative colitis patients

Objectives Emerging evidence suggests a potential relationship between body composition and short-term prognosis of ulcerative colitis (UC). Early and accurate assessment of rapid remission based on conventional therapy via abdominal computed tomography (CT) images has rarely been investigated. This study aimed to build a prediction model using CT-based body composition parameters for UC risk stratification. Methods In total, 138 patients with abdominal CT images were enrolled. Eleven quantitative parameters related to body composition involving skeletal muscle mass, visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) were measured and calculated using a semi-automated segmentation method. A prediction model was established with significant parameters using a multivariable logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate prediction performance. Subgroup analyses were implemented to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of the prediction model between different disease locations, centers, and CT scanners. The Delong test was used for statistical comparison of ROC curves. Results VAT density, SAT density, gender, and visceral obesity were significantly statistically different between remission and invalidation groups (all p < 0.05). The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the prediction model were 82.61%, 95.45%, 69.89%, and 0.855 (0.792–0.917), respectively. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 70.79% and 93.88%, respectively. No significant differences in the AUC of the prediction model were found in different subgroups (all p > 0.05). Conclusions The predicting model constructed with CT-based body composition parameters is a potential non-invasive approach for short-term prognosis identification and risk stratification. Additionally, VAT density was an independent predictor for escalating therapeutic regimens in UC cohorts. Critical relevance statement The CT images were used for evaluating body composition and risk stratification of ulcerative colitis patients, and a potential non-invasive prediction model was constructed to identify non-responders with conventional therapy for making therapeutic regimens timely and accurately. Key points • CT-based prediction models help divide patients into invalidation and remission groups in UC. • Results of the subgroup analysis confirmed the stability of the prediction model with a high AUC (all > 0.820). • The visceral adipose tissue density was an independent predictor of bad short-term prognosis in UC. Graphical Abstract