Deaths among adults under supervision of the England and Wales’ probation services: variation in individual and criminal justice-related factors by cause of death

Background The mortality rate among people under probation supervision in the community is greater than that among incarcerated people and that among the general population. However, there is limited research on the distinct vulnerabilities and risks underlying the causes of death in this population. In this retrospective cohort study, we examined the individual and criminal justice-related factors associated with different causes of death. Factors were assessed in relation to the type of supervision, distinguishing between those under post-custodial release and those serving a community sentence. Results The study utilised the official data held by His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service in England and Wales on the deaths of men and women under probation supervision between 01 April 2019 and 31 March 2021 where the cause of death had been definitively recorded ( n = 1770). The high risk of deaths primarily caused by external factors (i.e., suspected suicide (10%), homicide (5%), and drug-related death (26%)) in this population was confirmed. A Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) demonstrated unique relationships with suspected suicide and drug-related deaths for known suicide risk, history of drug use and recent (< 28 days of death) enforcement action due to a breach of probation conditions. Our findings suggest that that familial violence and abuse may be relevant in suicide and drug-related deaths and that minority groups may experience disproportional risk to certain types of death. Conclusions This study identified unique risk indicators and modifiable factors for deaths primarily caused by external factors in this population within the health and justice spheres. It emphasised the importance of addressing health inequalities in this population and improved joint-working across health and justice. This involves ensuring that research, policies, training, and services are responsive to the complex needs of those under probation supervision, including those serving community sentences. Only then can we hope to see lower rates of death within this population.