Association between the trajectory of ideal cardiovascular health metrics and incident chronic kidney disease among 27,635 older adults in northern China–a prospective cohort study

Background There is a lack of relevant studies evaluating the long-term impact of cardiovascular health factor (CVH) metrics on chronic kidney disease (CKD). Objective This study investigates the long-term change in CVH metrics in older people and explores the relationship between CVH metrics trajectory and CKD. Methods In total, 27,635 older people aged over 60 from the community-based Tianjin Chronic Kidney Disease Cohort study were enrolled. The participants completed five annual physical examinations between January 01, 2014, and December 31, 2018, and a subsequent follow-up between January 01, 2019, and December 31, 2021. CVH metrics trajectories were established by the group-based trajectory model to predict CKD risk. The relationships between baseline CVH, CVH change (ΔCVH), and CKD risk were also explored by logistic regression and restricted cubic spline regression model. In addition, likelihood ratio tests were used to compare the goodness of fit of the different models. Results Six distinct CVH metrics trajectories were identified among the participants: low-stable (11.19%), low-medium-stable (30.58%), medium-stable (30.54%), medium-high-decreased (5.46%), medium-high-stable (18.93%), and high-stable (3.25%). After adjustment for potential confounders, higher CVH metrics trajectory was associated with decreased risk of CKD ( P for trend < 0.001). Comparing the high-stable with the low-stable group, the risk of CKD decreased by 46%. All sensitivity analyses, including adjusting for baseline CVH and removing each CVH component from the total CVH, produced consistent results. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test revealed that the model established by the CVH trajectory fit better than the baseline CVH and Δ CVH. Conclusion The higher CVH metrics trajectory and improvement of CVH metrics were associated with decreased risk of CKD. This study emphasized the importance of improving CVH to achieve primary prevention of CKD in older people.