The impact of technological progress and industrial structure optimization on manufacturing carbon emissions: a new perspective based on interaction

Technological progress (TP) and industrial structure optimization (ISO) have a significant impact on manufacturing carbon emissions (M_CO2) and exhibit noticeable interaction effects. However, few studies have explored the impact of the interaction between TP and ISO or incorporated this interaction in a unified theoretical framework. This study aims to empirically analyze the specific mechanism behind how the interaction between TP and ISO affects M_CO2 and examine the degree of such impact. The study adopts a novel perspective toward the interaction between TP and ISO, employing a spatial panel model for empirical analysis. Results indicate that first, technological progress has no discernible inhibitory effect on M_CO2 in both cases with or without interaction. Nevertheless, industrial structure optimization can effectively reduce M_CO2, with manufacturing structure upgrading exhibiting a more significant inhibition effect than rationalization. Second, technological change alone or its interaction with industrial structure optimization does not lead to apparent reductions in carbon emissions. However, when combined with industrial structure upgrading, technological change exhibits an important inhibitory effect on M_CO2. Thirdly, within both cases of interaction and non-interaction scenarios, manufacturing structure upgrading has a significant spillover effect on M_CO2 while technological progress and manufacturing structure rationalization do not show noticeable spillover effects. Based on these empirical findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations for reducing M_CO2 including promoting upgrades in the manufacturing industry’s structural composition, facilitating integration between technological progress and structural upgrading within the industry sector as well as strengthening inter-regional industrial connections. Addressing these challenges and implementing these policy measures will contribute to mitigating manufacturing carbon emissions and advancing sustainable industrial development.