Association of non-obstructive dyspnoea with all-cause mortality and incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis

Background Controversy exists regarding the association between non-obstructive dyspnoea and the future development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and mortality. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the association of non-obstructive dyspnoea with mortality and incident COPD in adults.Methods We searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science to identify studies published from inception to 13 May 2023. Eligibility screening, data extraction, and quality assessment of the retrieved articles were conducted independently by two reviewers. Studies were included if they were original articles comparing incident COPD and all-cause mortality between individuals with normal lung function with and without dyspnoea. The primary outcomes were incident COPD and all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome was respiratory disease-related mortality. We used the random-effects model to calculate pooled estimates and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Heterogeneity was determined using the I-2 statistic.Results Of 6486 studies, 8 studies involving 100 758 individuals fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were included in the study. Compared with individuals without non-obstructive dyspnoea, individuals with non-obstructive dyspnoea had an increased risk of incident COPD (relative risk: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.83), and moderate heterogeneity was found (p=0.079, I2=52.2%). Individuals with non-obstructive dyspnoea had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.28, I2=0.0%) and respiratory disease-related mortality (hazard ratio: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.14 to 2.02, I2=0.0%) than those without.Conclusions Individuals with non-obstructive dyspnoea are at a higher risk of incident COPD and all-cause mortality than individuals without dyspnoea. Further research should investigate whether these high-risk adults may benefit from risk management and early therapeutic intervention.PROSPERO registration number CRD42023395192.