The Supply of Surgical Specialists and Subspecialists to the U.S. Medicare Population: National Trends From 2013 to 2019.

PURPOSE:The U.S. population is rapidly aging. The supply of surgeons needed to meet this demand should be evaluated. This study evaluated the trends in supply of Medicare surgeons by specialty and by U.S. state and region. METHOD:All surgeons associated with a National Provider Identifier for cardiothoracic surgery, colorectal surgery, general surgery, gynecologic oncology, hand surgery, neurosurgery, obstetrics-gynecology, ophthalmology, oral and maxillofacial surgery, orthopedic surgery, otolaryngology, plastic and reconstructive surgery, surgical oncology, urology, and vascular surgery from 2013 to 2019 on the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services website were included. The absolute number of physicians was adjusted per 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries. Annual change was calculated by linear regression model, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was calculated per specialty. RESULTS:The absolute number of physicians per 100,000 beneficiaries increased in 6 of 15 specialties during the study period. Vascular surgery had the largest annual increase (+0.23; CAGR, +2.75%), and obstetrics-gynecology had the largest annual decrease (-1.08; CAGR, -1.44%). Surgical oncology showed the largest positive CAGR (+4.20%). Oral and maxillofacial surgery had the largest negative CAGR (-2.86%). The Northeast was above the national average in supply for each specialty. The Midwest had the most specialties with positive CAGRs. The South did not meet the national average for physicians in any specialty. CONCLUSIONS:This analysis of 15 surgical specialties provides important context to predicted physician shortages to the Medicare population. The study found geographic variation by region across specialty, which has important implications for health care planning from the level of undergraduate medical education to provision of hospital resources. Overall, the supply of surgeons across all specialties may not be sufficient to meet the demand of the rapidly aging U.S. population. Future study is needed to evaluate why surgeons are leaving the Medicare program.