Risk of cardiovascular disease after hospital-diagnosed overweight or obesity

Objective The aim was to examine the association between hospital-diagnosed overweight/obesity and incident CVD according to the time period of the overweight/obesity diagnosis.Design This is a cohort study.Methods From Danish national health registries, we identified all residents with a first-time hospital-based overweight/obesity diagnosis code, 1977-2018 (n = 195,221), and an age and sex-matched general population comparison cohort (n = 1,952,210). We computed adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox regression. We adjusted for comorbidities and educational level and applied 10 years of follow-up.Results The overall incidence rate was 10.1 (95% CI 10.0-10.1) per 1000 person-years for the comparison cohort and 25.1 (95% CI 24.8-25.4) per 1000 person-years for the overweight/obesity cohort, corresponding to an aHR of 2.5 (95% CI 2.4-2.5). The aHR was elevated for all subtypes of CVD: heart failure: 3.9 (95% CI 3.7-4.1), bradyarrhythmia: 2.9 (95% CI 2.7-3.1), angina pectoris: 2.7 (95% CI 2.7-2.8), atrial fibrillation or flutter: 2.6 (95% CI 2.5-2.6), acute myocardial infarction: 2.4 (95% CI 2.3-2.4), revascularization procedure: 2.4 (95% CI 2.2-2.5), valvular heart disease: 1.7 (95% CI 1.6-1.8), ischemic stroke: 1.6 (95% CI 1.4-1.7), transient ischemic attack: 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.7), and cardiovascular death: 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.6). The 1-10-year aHR of any CVD associated with an overweight/obesity diagnosis decreased from 2.8 (95% CI 2.7-2.9) in 1977-1987 to 1.8 (95% CI 1.8-1.9) in 2008-2018.Conclusion Patients with hospital-diagnosed overweight/obesity had high rates of ischemic heart disease, heart failure, structural heart disease, arrhythmia, stroke, and death, although the strength of the association decreased in recent years.Significance statement Obesity is linked to metabolic abnormalities that predispose individuals to an increased risk of subtypes of CVD. In this population-based nationwide 40-year cohort study, we found that of 195,221 patients with an overweight/obesity diagnosis, more than 31,000 (15.9%) were admitted to hospital within 10 years because of CVD; corresponding to a 2.5-fold greater relative risk of any CVD associated with overweight/obesity than in the general population. We observed an increased risk for most CVD subtypes, including ischemic heart disease, heart failure, structural heart disease, arrhythmia, stroke, and cardiovascular death, although the strength of the association decreased in recent years. Our study emphasizes the importance of improved clinical handling of obesity and underscores the need to prevent associated complications to alleviate the burden of obesity.