Volume-based ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT predicts prognosis and outcome of active surveillance for intra-abdominal desmoid tumor

Purpose Desmoid tumor (DT) is a rare monoclonal, fibroblastic proliferation characterized by a variable and often unpredictable clinical course. Initial active surveillance is recommended by current guideline, and surgery is one of the main therapies for DT. Predicting the prognosis and outcome of active surveillance for intra-abdominal DT is pressing issue.Methods The study included eighteen patients with intra-abdominal DT. Metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) were measured. We analyzed their relationship with the outcome of active surveillance, as well as clinical, prognostic, and pathological data.Results The MTV and TLG of recurrent DT were significantly higher than those of non-recurrent DT (P < 0.001 and P = 0.00, respectively). The ROC curve suggested that the appropriate cutoff values for distinguishing recurrent DT from non-recurrent DT were 760.8 for MTV (sensitivity = 1, specificity = 0.857 and AUC = 0.929), and 1318.4 for TLG (sensitivity = 1, specificity = 0.786, and AUC = 0.911). The cutoff values of MTV and TLG significantly correlated with PFS using the Kaplan-Meier method (P = 0.002 and P = 0.007, respectively). MTV and TLG could distinguish DTs with subsequent progression from stable ones (P = 0.004 and P = 0.004, respectively). The ROC curve suggested that the appropriate cutoff values for distinguishing DTs with subsequent progression from stable ones were 197.1 for MTV (sensitivity = 0.9, specificity = 1, and AUC = 0.900), and 445.45 for TLG (sensitivity = 0.9, specificity = 1, and AUC = 0.900).Conclusion Volume-based F-18-FDG-PET can predict prognosis of intra-abdominal DT. MTV and TLG can predict the outcome of active surveillance for intra-abdominal DT. MTV and TLG can potentially be predictors of surgical risk and difficulty.