The Education Component and the Inclusion of the Enrolment Survival Measure: Provincial Equitable Share (PES)

This paper investigates the intergovernmental transfer systems in South Africa, more specifically, the underlying determinants and formula of the unconditional grants of the education component of the Provincial Equitable Share (PES). The PES formula is a weighted shares formula that depends on the demographic shares of the provinces (population) to determine the equitable share outcomes to be transferred to individual provinces. We find that the variables used have two main weaknesses: Firstly, the enrolment variable, which could be contaminated with school repeats and dropouts, is too broad to be an effective measure for representing the real beneficiaries of the transfers. Secondly, infrequent updates about the school-age cohort population variables render the desired PES grant transfers for education outdated as well as serially inconsistent. The paper also provides an analysis of the PES formula's mathematical construct, followed by a few suggested variables to improve the relevance and accuracy of the formula of the revenue transfer. One such improvement is demonstrated by the inclusion of the Enrolment Survival Measure (ESR). More research and data are required to extrapolate nuanced results and to understand the socio-economic impacts of adopting these new variables in the PES formula going forward.