Spatiotemporal variation of China's mariculture potential under climate change

Being the world's largest seafood producer, China's mariculture is critical for ensuring national and global food security, yet greatly threatened by climate change. It is essential to assess the potential opportunities and challenges for Chinese mariculture in light of climate change. Although the impact of climate change on mariculture potential at a global scale has been investigated, studies at sub-national scales of China are scarce, particularly those that take into account multiple environmental stressors and species. Here, we applied a combination of physical and biological models to quantify the spatiotemporal variation in the mariculture potential of seven finfish species and seven bivalve species cultured in China under the emission scenarios SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6 in the twentyfirst century. Our results demonstrated that the spatiotemporal trends in culture potential was species-specific. Finfish was less affected than bivalves. Four finfish species and seven bivalve species showed a continuously declining trend in culture potential and most species showed a northward shift of the centroid with high growth potential under SSP5-8.5. Under the scenario SSP1-2.6, the culture potential of finfish species mostly showed a stable or increasing trend, while that of bivalve species declined in the mid-twentyfirst century and partially recovered in the late twentyfirst century. Cold-water species exhibited a greater loss of culture potential than warm-water and eurythermal species. In the SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, the cold-water species Oncorhynchus mykiss and Patinopecten yessoensis experienced the most significant loss in culture potential among finfish and bivalve species. Meanwhile, the culture potential for two out of the four warm-water species, specifically Epinephelus spp. and Sciaenops ocellatus, saw an increase. The culture potential for eight eurythermal species remained stable or declined. This study helps to identify mariculture potential for different species and sea areas and can inform the development of climate-resilient mariculture in China.