Applications of bioclimatology to assess effects of climate change on viticultural suitability in the DO Len (Spain)

Spain accounts for 13.1% of the world's vineyard area, and viticulture is crucial for the socioeconomic and cultural sectors. Vineyards are among the perennial crops that can suffer most negative impacts under climate change which can pose challenges to the sustainability of viticulture. Local and regional studies are needed to assess these impacts to help implement effective strategies in response to climate change. To this end, our approach involves integrating both conventional agroclimatic indices and those new bioclimatic indices that have proven to be essential for the characterization and demarcation of vineyards into species distribution models to assess areas suitable for viticulture under climate change projections. The proposed methodology was tested in a viticultural region located in northwestern Spain (DO Leon). An ensemble platform was used to build consensus models encompassing three general circulation models, two emission scenario pathways and two time horizons. Only the predictors that effectively characterize each grape variety were included in the models. The results revealed increases in the continentality index, compensated thermicity index, hydrothermic index of Branas, and temperature range during ripening in all the future scenarios analyzed in comparison to current conditions. Conversely, the values for the annual ombrothermic index and growing season precipitation may decrease in the future. The pattern of changes for 2070 will be more pronounced than for 2050. A significant loss of future habitat suitability was detected within the limits of the study area for the grape varieties analyzed. This negative impact could be counteracted to some degree with new and favorable areas for the cultivation of vineyards in territories located at the north of the DO limits. We suggest that our results could help policymakers to develop practices and strategies to conserve existing grape varieties and to implement efficient adaptation measures for mitigating or anticipating the effects of climate change on viticulture.