Climate adaptive water policy in Australia's Murray Darling basin: soft options or hard commitments?

. Adapting to climate change is a pressing societal imperative. Here, we examine water governance arrangements in Australia's Murray-Darling basin, evaluating their attributes and adequacy for fostering climate adaptation. We synthesize data from expert interviews and review water and climate policies, analyzing their framing, logic, and dominant discourses. Our analysis indicates that prescriptive top-down planning and administratively rational approaches constrain Australia's climate adaptation. Current governance regimes inhibit innovation due to dominant governance approaches that are centralist and managerial, reinforcing the status quo and privileging irrigation-based economies. In the Murray-Darling basin, reforms to policy settings and institutional arrangements are needed to mobilize industries and communities in exploring alternative water futures that support transformations. We offer two contrasting archetypes for climate-adaptive water policy based on foundationally different assumptions about what drives climate vulnerability and builds adaptive capacities.