Searching for the “Holy Grail” of breast cancer recurrence risk: a narrative review of the hunt for a better biomarker and the promise of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)

Background This paper is a narrative review of a major clinical challenge at the heart of breast cancer care: determining which patients are at risk of recurrence, which require systemic therapy, and which remain at risk in the survivorship phase of care despite initial therapy. Methods We review the literature on prognostic and predictive biomarkers in breast cancer with a focus on detection of minimal residual disease. Results While we have many tools to estimate and refine risk that are used to individualize local and systemic therapy, we know that we continue to over treat many patients and undertreat others. Many patients also experience what is, at least in hindsight, needless fear of recurrence. In this review, we frame this dilemma for the practicing breast oncologist and discuss the search for what we term the “holy grail” of breast cancer evaluation: the ideal biomarker of residual distant disease. We review the history of attempts to address this problem and the up-to-date science on biomarkers, circulating tumor cells and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA). Conclusion This review suggests that the emerging promise of ctDNA may help resolve a crticical dilemma at the heart of breast cancer care, and improve prognostication, treatment selection, and outcomes for patients with breast cancer.