Reported effectiveness of COVID-19 monovalent booster vaccines and hybrid immunity against mild and severe Omicron disease in adults: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Background Waning of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (VE) has been observed across settings and epidemiological contexts. We conducted a systematic review of COVID-19 VE studies and performed a meta-regression analysis to improve understanding of determinants of waning. Methods Systematic review of PubMed, medRxiv and the WHO-International Vaccine Access Center database summarizing VE studies on 31 December 2022. Studies were those presenting primary adult VE data from hybrid immunity or third/fourth mRNA COVID-19 monovalent vaccine doses [due to limited data with other vaccines] against Omicron, compared with unvaccinated individuals or individuals eligible for corresponding booster doses but who did not receive them. We used meta-regression models, adjusting for confounders, with weeks since vaccination as a restricted cubic spline, to estimate VE over time since vaccination. Results We identified 55 eligible studies reporting 269 VE estimates. Most estimates (180/269; 67 %) described effectiveness of third dose vaccination; with 48 (18 %) and 41 (15 %) describing hybrid immunity and fourth dose effectiveness, respectively, mostly (200; 74 %) derived from test-negative design studies. Most estimates (176/269; 65 %) reported VE compared with unvaccinated comparison groups. Estimated VE against mild outcomes declined following third dose vaccination from 62 % (95 % CI: 58 % – 66 %) after 4 weeks to 48 % (41 % – 55 %) after 20 weeks. Fourth dose VE against mild COVID-19 declined from 48 % (41 % – 56 %) after 4 weeks to 47 % (19 % – 65 %) after 20 weeks. VE for severe outcomes was higher and declined in the three-dose group from 90 % (87 % – 92 %) after 4 weeks to 70 % (65 – 74 %) after 20 weeks. Conclusions Time-since vaccination is an important determinant of booster dose VE, a finding which may support seasonal COVID-19 booster doses. Integration of VE and immunological parameters – and longer-term data including from other vaccine types – are needed to better-understand determinants of clinical protection.