Sustaining aquifers hydrologically, economically, and institutionally: Policy analysis of the Ogallala in New Mexico

Groundwater discharge exceeding recharge threatens sustainable aquifer water use internationally. Interest remains high in discovering more hydrologically sustainable and economically affordable measures to protect these aquifers. Previous research has conducted various aquifer assessments. Some work has investigated costs and benefits of various plans that would limit aquifer pumping. Despite notable advances in this kind of analysis, little published work to date has unified these elements into a science -based integrated framework to inform more sustainable aquifer policy design. This work's novel contribution is to integrate analysis of hydrology, economics, institutions, and policy into a unified scientific framework to inform choices on more sustainable pumping strategies while protecting economic activity for agricultural and urban water -using sectors. It does so by conceptualizing, formulating, designing, and applying a mathematical programming framework to replicate historically observed pumping patterns in parts of the Southern and Central High Plains Ogallala Aquifer region in New Mexico, USA. We first calibrated the optimization framework to replicate the historically observed data. We then go on to identify least cost pumping caps that would have partly restored the aquifer to its 2014 level by 2020, while comparing the performance of four other partial aquifer protection policy measures. Findings indicate a surprisingly low cost that could have been incurred to partially protect the aquifer over that period. However, these low costs are complicated by (1) decreasing water quality outside of the irrigated regions and (2) focusing of lateral inputs to a narrower zone of depression around the irrigated regions. These findings carry important implications for identifying more sustainable aquifer management plans internationally. The work's importance comes from its capacity to inform policy debates over a range of water shortage sharing plans, while respecting institutional constraints governing equitable burden sharing.