Chikungunya seroprevalence, force of infection, and prevalence of chronic disability after infection in endemic and epidemic settings: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study

Background Chikungunya is an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes with a growing global burden linked to climate change and globalisation. We aimed to estimate chikungunya seroprevalence, force of infection (FOI), and prevalence of related chronic disability and hospital admissions in endemic and epidemic settings. Methods In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, Ovid, and Web of Science for articles published from database inception until Sept 26, 2022, for prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies that addressed serological chikungunya virus infection in any geographical region, age group, and population subgroup and for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies with data on chronic chikungunya or hospital admissions in people with chikungunya. We did a systematic review of studies on chikungunya seroprevalence and fitted catalytic models to each survey to estimate location-specific FOI (ie, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire chikungunya infection). We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya who had chronic chikungunya or were admitted to hospital following infection. We used a random-effects model to assess the relationship between chronic sequelae and follow-up length using linear regression. The systematic review protocol is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42022363102. Findings We identified 60 studies with data on seroprevalence and chronic chikungunya symptoms done across 76 locations in 38 countries, and classified 17 (22%) of 76 locations as endemic settings and 59 (78%) as epidemic settings. The global long-term median annual FOI was 0·007 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·003–0·010) and varied from 0·0001 (0·00004–0·0002) to 0·113 (0·07–0·20). The highest estimated median seroprevalence at age 10 years was in south Asia (8·0% [95% UI 6·5–9·6]), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (7·8% [4·9–14·6]), whereas median seroprevalence was lowest in the Middle East (1·0% [0·5–1·9]). We estimated that 51% (95% CI 45–58) of people with laboratory-confirmed symptomatic chikungunya had chronic disability after infection and 4% (3–5) were admitted to hospital following infection. Interpretation We inferred subnational heterogeneity in long-term average annual FOI and transmission dynamics and identified both endemic and epidemic settings across different countries. Brazil, Ethiopia, Malaysia, and India included both endemic and epidemic settings. Long-term average annual FOI was higher in epidemic settings than endemic settings. However, long-term cumulative incidence of chikungunya can be similar between large outbreaks in epidemic settings with a high FOI and endemic settings with a relatively low FOI. Funding International Vaccine Institute.