Construction and validation of a nomogram to predict left ventricular hypertrophy in low-risk patients with hypertension

Electrocardiography (ECG) is an accessible diagnostic tool for screening patients with hypertensive left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). However, its diagnostic sensitivity is low, with a high probability of false-negatives. Thus, this study aimed to establish a clinically useful nomogram to supplement the assessment of LVH in patients with hypertension and without ECG-LVH based on Cornell product criteria (low-risk hypertensive population). A cross-sectional dataset was used for model construction and divided into development (n = 2906) and verification (n = 1447) datasets. A multivariable logistic regression risk model and nomogram were developed after screening for risk factors. Of the 4353 low-risk hypertensive patients, 673 (15.4%) had LVH diagnosed by echocardiography (Echo-LVH). Eleven risk factors were identified: hypertension awareness, duration of hypertension, age, sex, high waist-hip ratio, education level, tea consumption, hypochloremia, and other ECG-LVH diagnostic criteria (including Sokolow-Lyon, Sokolow-Lyon products, and Peguero-Lo Presti). For the development and validation datasets, the areas under the curve were 0.724 (sensitivity = 0.606) and 0.700 (sensitivity = 0.663), respectively. After including blood pressure, the areas under the curve were 0.735 (sensitivity = 0.734) and 0.716 (sensitivity = 0.718), respectively. This novel nomogram had a good predictive ability and may be used to assess the Echo-LVH risk in patients with hypertension and without ECG-LVH based on Cornell product criteria.