Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecosystem services’ transformation in the Yellow River basin, China

The Yellow River basin (YRB) holds immense ecological significance in China, but it is currently undergoing profound transformations in its ecosystem services (ESs). To formulate appropriate environmental policies, it is vital to gain a comprehensive understanding of the characteristics and influential factors driving the ESs’ transformation in the YRB. The spatiotemporal dynamics in ESs was evaluated using the InVEST model, and the modes of the ESs’ transformation were summarized. The elements impacting ESs’ transformation and their interactions were assessed using the optimal parameter-based geographical detector (OPGD). Over the period from 1980 to 2020, the water yield within the YRB exhibited an upward trajectory, with a distinctive spatial pattern characterized by higher values in the southern and eastern regions, in contrast to lower values observed in the northern and western regions. Similarly, soil conservation demonstrated a tendency to rise over the duration of the research, with southern and western regions consistently exhibiting higher values compared to the northern and eastern regions. In contrast, habitat quality decreased over time and was accompanied by a progressive spatial decline from the southeast regions to the northwest regions. The ESs' transformation in the YRB from 1980 to 2020 indicated three modes: (1) simultaneous increases, this mode was characterized by concurrent increases in water yield and soil conservation; (2) increase and decrease, in this mode, there was an increase in soil conservation accompanied by a decrease in habitat quality; and (3) increase and deterioration, the third mode entailed an increase in water yield but a simultaneous deterioration in habitat quality. The 45-km grid was the best spatial scale for the analysis in this study. Over the span of 2000 through 2020, the ESs’ transformation in the YRB was subject to the influence of natural environmental, geographic location-related, socioeconomic, and policy factors. The determinants of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in ESs’ transformation in the YRB demonstrated double-factor and nonlinear enhancement effects. The counterchange with the most significant effects on ESs’ transformation were those between economic density and annual mean precipitation, annual mean temperature and ecological restoration, and the per capita income of urban residents and vegetation index.