Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment
CoRR(2024)
摘要
When considering airborne epidemic spreading in social systems, a natural
connection arises between mobility and epidemic contacts. As individuals
travel, possibilities to encounter new people either at the final destination
or during the transportation process appear. Such contacts can lead to new
contagion events. In fact, mobility has been a crucial target for early
non-pharmaceutical containment measures against the recent COVID-19 pandemic,
with a degree of intensity ranging from public transportation line closures to
regional, city or even home confinements. Nonetheless, quantitative knowledge
on the relationship between mobility-contagions and, consequently, on the
efficiency of containment measures remains elusive. Here we introduce an
agent-based model with a simple interaction between mobility and contacts.
Despite its simplicity our model shows the emergence of a critical mobility
level, inducing major outbreaks when surpassed. We explore the interplay
between mobility restrictions and the infection in recent intervention policies
seen across many countries, and how interventions in the form of closures
triggered by incidence rates can guide the epidemic into an oscillatory regime
with recurrent waves. We consider how the different interventions impact
societal well-being, the economy and the population. Finally, we propose a
mitigation framework based on the critical nature of mobility in an epidemic,
able to suppress incidence and oscillations at will, preventing extreme
incidence peaks with potential to saturate health care resources.
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