Unequal impact of climate warming on meat yields of global cattle farming

Climate warming affects global livestock productivity. The meat yield from cattle farming (cattle meat per animal) represents livestock productivity at the individual level. However, the impact of warming on cattle meat yield at a global scale is not well understood. In this study, we combine country-level data on the annual meat yield from cattle farming and socioeconomic data from 1961 to 2020 with climate projections from General Circulation Models. The findings show that cattle meat yield increases as temperatures rise from low to medium and then decreases when annual average temperatures exceed 7 °C; this repose is pronounced in the grassland-based livestock system. Further, we show that warming creates unequal impacts between high- and low-income countries due to the divergent baseline temperature conditions. Future warming aggravates these unequal burdens between countries, with the most pronounced effects observed under the upper-middle emissions scenario.