The trend of mortality rates following hospitals downgrading and closures due to outbreak of COVID-19 in Fars province: A comparative cohort study

Background and AimsHospitals are one of the most important healthcare centers for providing the patients with different medical needs. Several different factors might cause hospitals to downgrade their services or departments or close down overall. One of the most multifaceted reasons for hospital downgrading or closure is infectious disease outbreaks. In this regard, we aimed to evaluate the effects of hospital closure and downgrading due to the COVID-19 pandemic on the mortality rate of the people residing in Fars province, Iran.MethodsWe gathered mortality information, including the cause of death, age, sex, place, and time of death of all deceased cases occurring during a period of 3 years, from February 20, 2018 to March 2021 from the forensic medicine and also the Department of Biostatistics in Shiraz University of Medical Sciences.ResultsA total of 71,331 deaths have been reported since 2018 through the first quarter of 2021, with 57.9% of total mortality cases attributed to male gender. The total mortality counts ranged from 4229 to 9809 deaths per quarter, from which the minimum rate was reported in the first quarter of 2018 and the maximum in the fourth quarter of 2020. Based on the causes of death, diseases of the circulatory system were shown to be the all-time most frequent cause of death, accounting for a total of 42.8% of recorded deaths, followed by neoplasms (9.77%) and diseases of the respiratory system (9.45%).ConclusionAlthough the large number of deaths at the time of the pandemic are immediately due to COVID-19 infection, deaths due to a notable number of other causes have had a significant increase which, along with the specific trend of place and causes of death, shows that the downgrading and closure of hospitals have had a significant impact on overall population mortality. Several different causes with various natures might cause hospitals to downgrade their services or departments or close down overall, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the large number of deaths at the time of the pandemic are immediately due to COVID-19 infection, deaths due to a notable number of other causes have had a significant increase which, along with the specific trend of place and causes of death, shows that the downgrading and closure of hospitals have had a significant impact on overall population mortality. Evaluation of the long-term impact of hospital closure on disease-related mortalities should be continuously assessed, especially after the reopening of hospitals, to evaluate the significance of the impact of these imposed conditions.