Evaluating the Effectiveness of Countermeasures in ICT Supply Chains Through Elicitation-Informed Simulation.

Counterfeiting, the production of imitation goods, is a critical threat in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) manufacturing supply chain (SC). Countermeasures (CMs) are strategies to mitigate disruptions and enhance a SC. We present a novel hybrid approach for assessing and selecting CMs in ICT SCs. Our model incorporates insights from subject matter experts (SMEs), via Delphi elicitation, into the simulation. This technique is used to study SC resilience against disruptions caused by counterfeiting. ICT is an integral part of our daily lives and life-supporting systems, making resilience against such threats vital. Using performance criteria including system service levels, delivery time, and product quality, our findings show the importance of integrating expert knowledge in simulation and the effectiveness of certain CMs.