A probabilistic modeling approach for life extension decision-making of aging subsea pipelines

The decision-making concerning the life extension of aging subsea pipelines is intricate, primarily due to the complex nature of their degradation behavior. This paper presents a probabilistic modeling methodology tailored for life-extension decision of aging pipelines, effectively integrating reliability, risk, and economic assessments. The methodology adopts a dynamic Continuous Bayesian Network (CBN), incorporating dependencies between corrosion and fatigue, for addressing the multi-phase reliability degradation in conjunction with the repair activities. Moreover, it implements a state classification for risk factors, thereby enhancing the precision of agingrelated risk assessments. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the practical application of the methodology, revealing its efficacy in facilitating informed decision-making for the cost-benefit management of aging subsea pipelines.