Predicting Early Weight Loss Failure Using a Bariatric Surgery Outcomes Calculator and Weight Loss Curves

Weight loss after bariatric surgery can be accurately predicted using an outcomes calculator; however, outliers exist that do not meet the 1 year post-surgery weight projections. Our goal was to determine how soon after surgery these outliers can be identified. We conducted a retrospective cohort study. Using a bariatric surgery outcomes calculator formulated by the Michigan Bariatric Surgery Collaborative (MBSC), predicted weight loss at 1 year post-surgery was calculated on all patients who underwent primary bariatric surgery at a single-center academic institution between 2006 and 2015 who also had a documented 1-year follow-up weight (n = 1050). Weight loss curves were compared between high, low, and non-outliers as defined by their observed-to-expected (O:E) weight loss ratio based on total body weight loss (TBWL)