Estimating Freshwater Inflows for an Ungauged Watershed at the Big Boggy National Wildlife Refuge, USA

Bays and estuaries rely on freshwater inflows to maintain the salinity gradient necessary to sustain their fisheries. Reduced freshwater inflows, particularly during summer seasons, can be detrimental to the health of these systems. Despite an extensive network of streamflow gauges in the U.S., many coastal watersheds remain ungauged. The primary objective of this study was to develop methods to build a water budget for an ungauged watershed using limited data to determine the watershed contribution of freshwater to an at-risk bay system. This method was developed and tested for Big Boggy Creek, which flows into East Matagorda Bay (EMB), Texas. The streamflow into and out of Big Boggy Creek was quantified at key upstream and downstream sites. Over the summertime study period, we found average monthly freshwater inflows of 244 megaliters (ML). A simple inflow decision tool was developed to assist resource managers in estimating freshwater inflows during the summer months in the study area. Two recommendations are provided to increase freshwater inflows to EMB, with the most approachable option being purchasing water from a regional river authority. The framework developed herein can be modified and applied to ungauged watersheds to budget, model, and predict freshwater inflow contributions.