Modeling health outcomes associated with BRCA testing and treatment strategies for patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer

Background: Germline BRCA mutations (gBRCAm) occur in 4%-8% patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer (mPC); guidelines recommend platinum-based chemotherapies and olaparib maintenance in this population. We evaluated, through modeling, the role of treatments and gBRCA testing on health outcomes of mPC patients. Methods: A decision tree/partitioned survival model was developed to assess lifetime health outcomes for four strategies: 1) no testing; 2) early testing/no olaparib maintenance; 3) early testing (i.e., before 1L treatment)/olaparib maintenance; and 4) late testing/olaparib maintenance. Treatment patterns were assumed to follow current practice in the United States. Overall survival and progression -free survival curves were extrapolated from pivotal trials, including POLO trial for outcomes from olaparib maintenance after at least 16 weeks of platinum-based chemotherapy. Results: Among patients with gBRCAm, almost twice as many patients received platinum-based regimens in strategies involving early testing compared to when early testing was not employed (78.7 % vs 40.2 %). Health outcomes were highest in the strategy with early testing and available olaparib treatment whether considering progression -free life years (PF LYs, 1.27 vs 0.55-0.87), LYs (1.82 vs 0.95-1.27) or quality adjusted life years (QALYs, 1.15 vs 0.73-0.92 for others). Consistent patterns of results were observed in the overall cohort of mPC patients (i.e., irrespective of gBRCAm). Conclusion: Patients with mPC achieved longest health outcomes (as measured by mean PF LYs, LYs and QALYs) with a scenario of early gBRCA testing and availability of olaparib maintenance. The results were primarily driven by improved health outcomes associated with higher efficacy of platinum-based chemotherapies and olaparib used in gBRCAm patients. (c) 2024 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.