Genetic Structure and Population History of the Zaisan Toad-Headed Agama (Phrynocephalus melanurus) Inferred from Mitochondrial DNA

The agamid lizard Phrynocephalus melanurus is restricted to Northwest China (Dzungar Basin) and the adjacent Eastern Kazakhstan (Zaisan and Alakol basins). To elucidate the phylogeography of P. melanurus, we obtained the mitochondrial DNA COI segments of 175 sampled lizards from 44 localities across the whole distribution. Phylogenetic analyses revealed two main Clades comprising five geographically structured lineages (I, IIa, IIb1, IIb2, and IIb3) that fit an isolation-by-distance (IBD) model. The divergence from the most recent common ancestor was dated to similar to 1.87 million years ago (Ma). Demographic analyses demonstrated lineage-specific response to past climate change: stable population for Clade I, Subclade IIb1; past population expansion for IIb3 since 0.18 Ma, respectively. Bayesian phylogeographic diffusion analyses detected initial spreading at the Saur Mount vicinity, approximately 1.8 Ma. Historical species distribution model (SDM) projected expansion of the suitable habitat in the last interglacial and shift and contraction in the last glacial maximum and Holocene epochs. The SDM predicted a drastic reduction in suitable area throughout the range as a response to future climate change. Our findings suggest that the evolution of P. melanurus followed a parapatric divergence with subsequent dispersal and adaptation to cold and dry environments during the Quaternary. Overall, this work improves our understanding of the lineage diversification and population dynamics of P. melanurus, providing further insights into the evolutionary processes that occurred in Northwest China and adjacent Eastern Kazakhstan.