Common carotid artery diameter and the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality: a prospective cohort study in northeast China

Background The association between the common carotid artery (CCA) diameter and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is recognized, but the precise nature of this link remains elusive. This study aimed to investigate the potential relationship between CCA diameter and the risk of CVD mortality in a large population in northeast China. Methods The current study included 5668 participants (mean age 58.9 ± 10.1 years) from a population-based study conducted in rural areas of northeast China between September 2017 and May 2018. Information on death was collected from baseline until July 31, 2022. The CCA inter-adventitial diameter was measured using ultrasound. Cox proportional-hazard models were employed to explore the relationship between the common carotid artery diameter and cardiovascular mortality. Results At baseline, the mean CCA diameter (mm) of subjects was 7.30 ± 0.99 and increased significantly with age, ranging from 6.65 ± 0.71 among people 40–49 years to 7.99 ± 1.04 among people ≥ 80 years. CCA diameter was significantly larger in males compared to females (7.51 ± 1.03 versus vs. 7.16 ± 0.94; P < 0.001). A total of 185 participants died of CVD during a median follow-up of 4.48 years. CCA diameters were divided into quartiles, and the highest quartile of carotid diameter (≥ 8.06 mm) had a 2.29 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24, 4.22) times higher risk of CVD mortality than the lowest quartile (≤ 6.65 mm) ( P < 0.01) in the fully adjusted model. Each increase in the diameter of the common carotid artery (per SD) raised the risk of cardiovascular death by 36% (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.18, 1.57). The subgroup analysis results demonstrated that a per SD increase was associated with a 42% increased risk of CVD mortality in participants aged ≥ 64 years in the fully adjusted model (HR: 1.42; 95%CI: 1.21, 1.66). Conclusions Our study indicates the possible incremental value of CCA diameter in optimizing the risk stratification of cardiovascular disease and provides essential insights into reducing the burden of cardiovascular disease.