AI and the Opportunity for Shared Prosperity: Lessons from the History of Technology and the Economy
arxiv(2024)
摘要
Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) marks a pivotal moment in
human history. It presents the opportunity for machines to learn, adapt, and
perform tasks that have the potential to assist people, from everyday
activities to their most creative and ambitious projects. It could also help
businesses and organizations harness knowledge, increase productivity,
innovate, transform, and power shared prosperity. This tremendous potential
raises two fundamental questions: (1) Will AI actually advance national and
global economic transformation to benefit society at large? and (2) What issues
must we get right to fully realize AI's economic value, expand prosperity and
improve lives everywhere? We explore these questions by considering the recent
history of technology and innovation as a guide for the likely impact of AI and
what we must do to realize its economic potential to benefit society. While we
do not presume the future will be entirely like that past, for reasons we will
discuss, we do believe prior experience with technological change offers many
useful lessons. We conclude that while progress in AI presents a historic
opportunity to advance our economic prosperity and future wellbeing, its
economic benefits will not come automatically and that AI risks exacerbating
existing economic challenges unless we collectively and purposefully act to
enable its potential and address its challenges. We suggest a collective policy
agenda - involving developers, deployers and users of AI, infrastructure
providers, policymakers, and those involved in workforce training - that may
help both realize and harness AI's economic potential and address its risks to
our shared prosperity.
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