Landslides and growing folds: A lesson from the Kura fold-and-thrust belt (Azerbaijan, Georgia)

Active fold-and-thrust belts create new landslide-prone slopes during tectonic deformation propagation. However, studies on landslide distribution in newly formed fold-and-thrust belts are limited. In this study, we present a new inventory of landslides in the Kura fold-and-thrust belt, a tectonically active, but relatively low-altitude southern margin of the Greater Caucasus. The area has been tectonically framed in the last similar to 2-3 Ma and is represented by folds and thrusts deforming Miocene to Quaternary sediments. Through satellite imagery analysis, we mapped nearly 1600 landslides, with a quarter currently active. While landslides cover <1 % of the area, they tend to cluster at higher elevations and in regions with relatively high local relief. Landslides predominantly occur in tectonically uplifted areas, affecting the highest and steepest parts of growing anticlines and the steep slopes of incising valleys intersecting active thrust faults. Based on observed landslide distribution in folds at different stages of development, we propose a conceptual model for the temporal evolution of landslide patterns in weak sediment-based fold-and-thrust belts: 1) In the initial stages, slow-moving slope deformations affect incipient thrust fronts. With the flanks of the growing anticline lacking sufficient steepness, landslides tend to concentrate in deep valleys intersecting the uplifting hanging walls. 2) With ongoing thrust uplift, growing and steepening anticlines become more prone to planar sliding when dip slopes exceed friction angle, and valley development creates additional dip slopes, resulting in widespread landslides. 3) In the final stage, erosional decay reduces topographic relief, leading to badland formation with gully erosion and decreased landslide occurrence.