Missing the Mark: Evaluating the Validity of the Ventral Hernia Screen in Detecting Recurrence

Purpose: Hernia recurrence is a primary metric in evaluating the success of ventral hernia repair (VHR). Current screening methods for hernia recurrence, including the validated Ventral Hernia Screening (VHS) questionnaire, have not yet been critically evaluated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of the VHS for hernia recurrence. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent primary VHR utilizing poly-4-hydroxybutyrate mesh at a single-institution from January 2016 to December 2021 who completed at least one VHS during their postoperative follow-up. All patients who screened positive underwent follow-up diagnostic computed tomography or physical examination for confirmation of hernia recurrence. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were assessed for each item and the VHS as a whole. Results: A total of 68 patients who completed 119 VHS questionnaires were included. The median time to VHS administration was 3.6 years (range .8-6.3 years). The VHS tool had a sensitivity of 40.0%, specificity of 71.1%, PPV of 5.7%, and NPV of 96.4%. Individual items of the VHS also produced poor screening effects, with sensitivities between 20 and 40%, specificities between 79 and 97%, PPVs between 4 and 25%, and NPVs from 95 to 97%. Conclusion: The VHS was a poor positive predictive tool for hernia recurrence, with both a low PPV and sensitivity. Many patients may be unaware of when they truly have hernia recurrence in the long term. More rigorous tools need to be developed to monitor recurrence following VHR.