Social-ecological vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries to climate change

Climate change is a new disrupter to global fisheries systems and their governance frameworks. It poses a pressing management challenge, particularly in China, which is renowned as the world's largest fishing country and seafood producer. As climate change continues to intensify in the region and climate awareness grows within the country's national policy, the need to understand China's fisheries' resilience to the escalating climate crisis becomes paramount. In this study, we conduct an interdisciplinary analysis to assess the vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries in response to climate change. This study employs a spatially explicit, indicator -based approach with a coupled social-ecological framework, focusing on 67 species and 11 coastal regions. By integrating diverse sets of climatic, ecological, economic, societal, and governance indicators and information, we elucidate the factors that could hinder climate adaptation, including a limited understanding of fish early life stages, uncertainty in seafood production, unequal allocation and accessibility of resources, and inadequate consideration of inclusive governance and adaptive management. Our results show that species, which have managed to survive the stress of overfishing, demonstrate a remarkable ability to adapt to climate change. However, collapsing stocks such as large yellow croaker face a high risk due to the synergistic effects of inherent biological traits and external management interventions. We emphasize the imperative to build institutional, scientific, and social capacity to support fisheries adaptation. The scientific insights provided by this study can inform fisheries management decisions and promote the operationalization of climate- resilient fisheries in China and other regions. Significance Climate change is a mounting threat to China's marine fisheries, which account for nearly one -sixth of the world's catch but face declines in fish stock abundance and complex management issues. In this interdisciplinary assessment of climate risk, we find intense fishing and other pressures over decades have selected for more climate resilient fishery species. However, less adaptive species- critical both socially and ecologically within China and beyond-are at risk. By linking ecological vulnerabilities to anthropogenic pressures, we reveal regional disparities in social vulnerability and common adaptation challenges across the country. Our study demonstrates the key ecological, social, and governance factors driving climate vulnerability and offers lessons that can help other regions identify targeted adaptation solutions to enhance fisheries resilience.