Longitudinal Assessment of Pancreas Volume by MRI Predicts Progression to Stage 3 Type 1 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE:This multicenter prospective cohort study compared pancreas volume as assessed by MRI, metabolic scores derived from oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT), and a combination of pancreas volume and metabolic scores for predicting progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes (T1D) in individuals with multiple diabetes-related autoantibodies. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:Pancreas MRI was performed in 65 multiple autoantibody-positive participants enrolled in the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study. Prediction of progression to stage 3 T1D was assessed using pancreas volume index (PVI), OGTT-derived Index60 score and Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS), and a combination of PVI and DPTRS. RESULTS:PVI, Index60, and DPTRS were all significantly different at study entry in 11 individuals who subsequently experienced progression to stage 3 T1D compared with 54 participants who did not experience progression (P < 0.005). PVI did not correlate with metabolic testing across individual study participants. PVI declined longitudinally in the 11 individuals diagnosed with stage 3 T1D, whereas Index60 and DPTRS increased. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting progression to stage 3 from measurements at study entry was 0.76 for PVI, 0.79 for Index60, 0.79 for DPTRS, and 0.91 for PVI plus DPTRS. CONCLUSIONS:These findings suggest that measures of pancreas volume and metabolism reflect distinct components of risk for developing stage 3 type 1 diabetes and that a combination of these measures may provide superior prediction than either alone.