The influence of pricing interventions in food choices on Brazil: An agent-based modelling approach

This study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) to analyse beef consumption trends in Brazil from 2017 to 2020. The ABM assesses the influence of price changes, specifically a rise in beef prices, on consumption behaviours and their diverse impacts across income groups. By integrating demographic and socioeconomic factors, the model replicates beef consumption decisions within Brazil. Findings show that consumer preferences are highly responsive to beef prices, with consumption decreasing as prices increase. A 60 % price increase due to a US$ 42/tCO2e tax could potentially reduce beef consumption by 55 %, cutting livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions by 53 % in Brazil. However, this tax would disproportionately affect lower-income individuals, worsening social inequality. To address potential food insecurity and ensure adequate nutrition for all, the consequences of food price interventions must be considered. Additional measures, such as tax incentives for plant-based alternatives, should be adopted to encourage suitable dietary choices. By thoughtfully assessing pricing intervention impacts, policymakers can support climate change mitigation, promote reduced meat consumption, and ensure fair access to nutritious food. This research improves our understanding of dietary decisions, the efficacy of pricing interventions, and their implications for affordability and social equality, with relevance beyond Brazil to nations facing similar challenges.