Climate Change and Pilgrimage to Shrines in Ethiopia

Pilgrimages are an important part of our intangible heritage. These long journeys, often on foot, can be sensitive to weather, so this study sees pilgrimages as providing an opportunity to look at the way in which changes in climate affect intangible heritage. It examines two important Ethiopian pilgrimages that involve hundreds of thousands who travel each year to Dirre Sheikh Hussein, seen as the country's Mecca, and Lalibela, its Jerusalem. These journeys in the cold season (December-February) often exceed 1000 km in length and expose pilgrims to low temperatures in mountain areas. Our analysis uses daily output data from ERA-5 and CHIRPS for rainfall and temperature across the recent past (1984-2014) and an ensemble of climate models (CMIP6) for the periods 1984-2014 and 2035-2065, to explore changes in nighttime low temperature, daytime high temperature and the potential increase in days of heavy rain in mountain areas. Additionally, we examine the increasing number of very hot days affecting travel to and from Dirre Sheikh Hussein. The pilgrims experience weather events and not long-term average conditions, so extremes and spells of inclement weather can affect their experience. Management plans for the regions have yet to address likely changes to climate at these religious sites, or consider how strategic planning might mitigate their impact on pilgrims.