Inclination Trend of the Agulhas Return Current Path in Three Decades

The Agulhas Return Current (ARC), as a primary component of the Agulhas system, contributes to water exchange and mass transport between the southern portions of the Indian and Atlantic Ocean basins. In this study, satellite altimeter data and reanalysis datasets, and a new set of criteria for the piecewise definition of the jet axis are used to explore the long-term change of the ARC's axis position in recent three decades. It is found that the ARC axis exhibits a significant slanting trend with its western part (35-48(degrees)E) migrating northward and the eastern part (48-70(degrees)E) migrating southward. The meridional movement of the ARC path could be attributed to large-scale wind forcing. The anomalous surface wind stress curl, by Ekman pumping mechanism, leads to positive-negative-positive sea surface height anomalies in the western section and negative-positive-negative anomalies in the eastern section, thus the ARC axis tilts accordingly, in a northwest-southeast direction. Further analysis suggests that this ARC slanting trend is more dependent on the southward shift of the downstream axis and less on the topographic steering upstream. The downstream axis is more likely to interact with the ACC fronts and its migration could dominate the local EKE pattern by changing the background circulation and energy cascade direction. For the headstream west of 35(degrees)E, the ARC axis is more subject to topography, thus the EKE change is more dominated by eddy activity processes, including shedding, propagation and merging. This study provides some new insights into the long-term change of ARC and its interaction with the local EKE variability.