Modelling Paroxysmal and Mild-Strombolian Eruptive Plumes at Stromboli and Mt. Etna on 28 August 2019

Volcanic eruptions pose a major natural hazard influencing the environment, climate and human beings at different temporal and spatial scales. Nevertheless, several volcanoes worldwide are poorly monitored and assessing the impact of their eruptions remains, in some cases, challenging. Nowadays, different numerical dispersion models are largely employed in order to evaluate the potential effects of volcanic plume dispersion due to the transport of ash and gases. On 28 August 2019, both Mt. Etna and Stromboli had eruptive activity; Mt. Etna was characterised by mild-Strombolian activity at summit craters, while at Stromboli volcano, a paroxysmal event occurred, which interrupted the ordinary typical-steady Strombolian activity. Here, we explore the spatial dispersion of volcanic sulphur dioxide (SO2) gas plumes in the atmosphere, at both volcanoes, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) considering the ground-measured SO2 amounts and the plume-height as time-variable eruptive source parameters. The performance of WRF-Chem was assessed by cross-correlating the simulated SO2 dispersion maps with data retrieved by TROPOMI and OMI sensors. The results show a feasible agreement between the modelled dispersion maps and TROPOMI satellite for both volcanoes, with spatial pattern retrievals and a total mass of dispersed SO2 of the same order of magnitude. Predicted total SO2 mass for Stromboli might be underestimated due to the inhibition from ground to resolve the sin-eruptive SO2 emission due to the extreme ash-rich volcanic plume released during the paroxysm. This study demonstrates the feasibility of a WRF-Chem model with time-variable ESPs in simultaneously reproducing two eruptive plumes with different SO2 emission and their dispersion into the atmosphere. The operational implementation of this method could represent effective support for the assessment of local-to-regional air quality and flight security and, in case of particularly intense events, also on a global scale.