A multivariable prediction model for intra-amniotic infection in patients with preterm labor and intact membranes including a point of care system that measures amniotic fluid MMP-8

Objectives Among patients with preterm labor and intact membranes (PTL), those with intra-amniotic infection (IAI) present the highest risk of adverse perinatal outcomes. Current identification of IAI, based on microbiological cultures and/or polymerase chain reaction amplification of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene, delay diagnosis and, consequently, antenatal management. The aim to of the study was to assess the performance of a multivariable prediction model for diagnosing IAI in patients with PTL below 34.0 weeks using clinical, sonographic and biochemical biomarkers.Methods From 2019 to 2022, we prospectively included pregnant patients admitted below 34.0 weeks with diagnosis of PTL and had undergone amniocentesis to rule in/out IAI. The main outcome was IAI, defined by a positive culture and/or 16S ribosomal RNA gene in amniotic fluid. Based on the date of admission, the sample (n=98) was divided into a derivation (2019-2020, n=49) and validation cohort (2021-2022, n=49). Logistic regression models were developed for the outcomes evaluated. As predictive variables we explored ultrasound cervical length measurement at admission, maternal C-reactive protein, gestational age, and amniotic fluid glucose and matrix metalloproteinase-8 (MMP-8) levels. The model was developed in the derivation cohort and applied to the validation cohort and diagnostic performance was evaluated. Clinical management was blinded to the model results.Results During the study period, we included 98 patients admitted with a diagnosis of PTL. Of these, 10 % had IAI. The final model included MMP-8 and amniotic fluid glucose levels and showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict the risk of IAI of 0.961 (95 % confidence interval: 0.860-0.995) with a sensitivity of 75 %, specificity of 93.3 %, positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 11.3 and negative LR of 0.27 in the validation cohort.Conclusions In patients with PTL, a multivariable prediction model including amniotic fluid MMP-8 and glucose levels might help in the clinical management of patients undergoing amniocentesis to rule in/out IAI, providing results within a few minutes.