Collaborative modelling for goal-oriented scenario planning: A resilience planning case study in the context of greater Sydney

Worldwide, natural hazards have an increasing impact on ever expanding urbanised areas. Therefore, authorities need more sophisticated planning support systems (PSS) to enhance city resilience. This study explored the potential of a Cellular Automata-based model developed using Metronamica PSS for goal-oriented and collaborative resilience planning in the context of Greater Sydney, Australia. The process was embedded within a geodesign framework and participants (n = 19) collaborated in developing and validating four scenarios for 2050. The mitigating effects on the risks of bushfire, flood, and urban heat were analysed to support decision-making. The resulting Bushfire resilience scenario was significantly different from a present policy abiding, Business-As-Usual, scenario. This should encourage planners to consider the issue more closely. The study identified potential locations for resilient future growth, although additional land will be required by 2050, while medium-density developments were found to lessen urban heat impact. The research showed that city resilience scenarios can be constructed collaboratively using an advanced computer-based model, and stakeholders can understand such complex models, and participate in their improvement if the data and models are adequately shared. Future research can extend this approach by engaging the wider community in the scenario planning process.